| Abstract: | It remains unclear whether screening for advanced fibrosis in the community can identify the subgroup of people with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) at higher risk for development of liver-related complications. We aimed to determine the prognostic value of baseline noninvasive fibrosis tests for predicting liver-related outcomes and mortality in patients with NAFLD from type 2 diabetes (T2D) clinics or primary care. Patients (n = 243) who were screened for NAFLD with advanced fibrosis by using NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis 4 score (FIB-4), enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, and liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) were followed up for clinical outcomes by review of electronic medical records. During a median follow-up of 50 months, decompensated liver disease or primary liver cancer occurred in 6 of 35 (17.1%) patients with baseline LSM > 13 kPa, 1 of 17 (5.9%) patients with LSM 9.5-13 kPa, and in no patients with LSM < 9.5 kPa. No patient with low-risk NFS developed liver decompensation or liver-related mortality. Following repeat NFSs at the end of follow-up, all patients with a liver-related complication were in the high-risk NFS category. Patients who developed liver-related complications were also more likely to have baseline high-risk FIB-4 scores or ELF test ≥9.8 compared to patients who did not develop liver outcomes. Conclusion: Liver fibrosis risk stratification in non-hepatology settings can identify the subset of patients at risk of liver-related complications. Although the rate of development of a decompensation event or hepatocellular carcinoma was low (2.1% per year) in our patients with compensated cirrhosis (LSM > 13 kPa), these events are projected to lead to a substantial increase in NAFLD-related disease burden over the next decade due to the high prevalence of NAFLD in people with obesity and T2D. |
