Research Article Details
| Article ID: | A11568 |
| PMID: | 30836450 |
| Source: | Aliment Pharmacol Ther |
| Title: | Derivation and validation of a cardiovascular risk score for prediction of major acute cardiovascular events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; the importance of an elevated mean platelet volume. |
| Abstract: | BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a key cause of morbidity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) but appropriate means to predict major acute cardiovascular events (MACE) are lacking. AIM: To design a bespoke cardiovascular risk score in NAFLD. METHODS: A retrospective derivation (2008-2016, 356 patients) and a prospective validation (2016- 2017, 111 patients) NAFLD cohort study was performed. Clinical and biochemical data were recorded at enrolment and mean platelet volume (MPV), Qrisk2 and Framingham scores were recorded one year prior to MACE (Cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome, stroke and transient ischaemic attack). RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts were well-matched, with MACE prevalence 12.6% and 12%, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, diabetes, advanced fibrosis, collagen proportionate area >5%, MPV and liver stiffness were associated with MACE. After multivariate analysis, age, diabetes and MPV remained independently predictive of MACE. The "NAFLD CV-risk score" was generated using binary logistic regression: 0.06*(Age) + 0.963*(MPV) + 0.26*(DM1 ) - 16.44; 1 Diabetes mellitus: 1: present; 2: absent. (AUROC 0.84). A cut-off of -3.98 gave a sensitivity 97%, specificity 27%, PPV 16%, and NPV 99%. An MPV alone of >10.05 gave a sensitivity 97%, specificity 59%, PPV 24% and NPV 97% (AUROC 0.83). Validation cohort AUROCs were comparable at 0.77 (NAFLD CV-risk) and 0.72 (MPV). In the full cohort, the NAFLD CV-risk score and MPV outperformed both Qrisk2 and Framingham scores. CONCLUSIONS: The NAFLD CV risk score and MPV accurately predict 1-year risk of MACE, thereby allowing better identification of patients that require optimisation of their cardiovascular risk profile. |
| DOI: | 10.1111/apt.15192 |
| Strategy ID | Therapy Strategy | Synonyms | Therapy Targets | Therapy Drugs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S03 | Anti-fibrosis | fibrosis | Angiotensin Receptor Blocker (ARB); CCR2/CCR5 antagonist; Thyroid receptor β agonist; PEGylated human FGF21 analogue; Monoclonal antibody to lysyl oxidase-like 2 (LOXL2); Galectin-3 inhibitor; FGF19 variant | Losartan; Cenicriviroc; VK-2809; MGL-3196; Pegbelfermin; Simtuzumab; GR-MD-02; NGM282 | Details |
| Diseases ID | DO ID | Disease Name | Definition | Class | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I16 | 6713 | Cerebrovascular disease | An vascular disease that is characterized by dysfunction of the blood vessels supplying the brain. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebrovascular_disease, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK378/ | disease of anatomical entity/ cardiovascular system disease/ vascular disease/cerebrovascular disease | Details |
| I05 | 9352 | Type 2 diabetes mellitus | A diabetes that is characterized by chronic hyperglycaemia with disturbances of carbohydrate, fat and protein metabolism resulting from defects in insulin secretion, insulin action, or both. A diabetes mellitus that is characterized by high blood sugar, insulin resistance, and relative lack of insulin. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diabetes, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diabetes_mellitus_type_2 | disease of metabolism/inherited metabolic disorder/ carbohydrate metabolic disorder/glucose metabolism disease/diabetes/ diabetes mellitus | Details |
| Drug ID | Drug Name | Type | DrugBank ID | Targets | Category | Latest Progress | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D080 | Citrulline | Chemical drug | DB00155 | -- | -- | Under clinical trials | Details |
| D094 | Cysteamine | Chemical drug | DB00847 | GSS stimulant | Renal drug | Under clinical trials | Details |
| D095 | Cysteamine bitartrate | Chemical drug | DB00847 | -- | -- | Under clinical trials | Details |