| Abstract: | OBJECTIVE: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease, the natural course of which has not been well documented. This study aimed to perform a prospective cohort study to investigate NAFLD in a Chinese population. METHODS: Using our previous epidemiological survey, 3543 patients were followed-up for a median of 4 years (range 3.6-4.8 years). Of these patients, 624 participated in a new survey. Interviews, physical examinations, biochemical tests and abdominal ultrasonography were repeated for these patient. RESULTS: The annual incidence of NAFLD was 9.1% (male 7.3% vs female 9.7%, P=0.047). Among 117 NAFLD patients at baseline, 51 (43.6%) remained unchanged, 26 (22.2%) became worse, and 40 (34.2%) improved. Patients with simultaneous metabolic syndrome (MS) showed accelerated progression (P=0.026). For the NAFLD patients, both general annual mortality rates and cardiovascular disease deaths (both 0.54%) were significantly higher than those of patients without NAFLD (0.19% and 0.17%, P=0.005). Age and several variables related to MS were risk factors for NAFLD progression. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NAFLD in southern China is relatively lower in comparison with that of the developed countries. Patients with NAFLD have a benign prognosis. Variables related to MS are risk factors for NAFLD occurrence and progression. |
