| Abstract: | BACKGROUND: Advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis (compensated advanced chronic liver disease [cACLD]) are clinically indistinguishable and increase risk of developing clinically significant portal hypertension. Baveno VII recommends using elastography to rule out and diagnose cACLD with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) cut-offs of 10/15 kPa. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis of 330 nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients, performance of the Baveno VII cut-offs for diagnosing cACLD was compared with newly suggested lower cut-offs (8/12 kPa). A model for detecting cACLD among those with LSM between 8 and 12 kPa was developed and compared with recently published models. RESULTS: Seventy (21.2%) of the 330 NAFLD patients had biopsy-proven cACLD. The Baveno VII cut-offs (10/15 kPa) had a lower sensitivity of 72.8% (60.9-82.8%) and a specificity of 93.4% (89.7-96.1%). Sensitivity and specificity of lower cut-offs (8/12 kPa) were 91.4% (82.3-96.8%) and 88.5% (83.9-92.1%), respectively. Modeling based on the presence of diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 3.625[1.161-11.320], p = 0.027) and serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels (OR 1.636[1.098-2.436], p = 0.015) correctly identified 75.7% of patients with LSM between 8 and 12 kPa. Our model performed best with an area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.725 (95%CI 0.609-0.822), compared to Papatheodoridi (AUROC 0.626, CI 0.506-.736) and Zhou (AUROC 0.523, CI 0.403-0.640) models. A two-step strategy comprising application of lower LSM cut-offs followed by the predictive model correctly identified the presence of cACLD in 83% of the patients as compared to 75% by the Baveno VII cut-offs. CONCLUSION: A two-step strategy employing lower LSM cut-offs and modeling based on diabetes and AST levels outperforms Baveno VII cut-offs for identifying cACLD in NAFLD patients. |
